"If you have the flu symptoms, your asymptomatic spouse may better answer the willingness-to-pay question". Evidence from a double-bounded dichotomous choice model with heterogeneous anchoring.

The small sample size of contingent valuation (CV) surveys conducted in patients may have limited the use of the single-bounded (SB) dichotomous choice format which is recommended in environmental economics. In this paper, we explore two ways to increase the statistical efficiency of the SB format: (1) by the inclusion of proxies in addition to patients; (2) by the addition of a follow-up dichotomous question, i.e. the double-bounded (DB) dichotomous choice format. We found that patients (n=223) and spouses (n=64) answering on behalf of the patient had on average a similar willingness-to-pay for earlier alleviation of flu symptoms. However, a patient was significantly more likely to anchor his/her answer on the first bid as compared to a spouse. Finally, our original DB model with shift effect and heterogeneous anchoring reconciled the discrepancies found in willingness-to-pay statistics between SB and DB models in keeping with increased statistical efficiency.Contingent valuation; double-bounded dichotomous choice; Patient; proxy; anchoring; structural shift; influenza

Comparative age distribution of influenza morbidity and mortality during seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies have shown a relatively high mortality rate among young people infected by the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Here we compared the age distributions of morbidity and mortality during two seasonal influenza epidemics (H1N1 and H3N2) in France and the United States with those of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic waves in the same countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Age-standardized ratios were used to compare the age distribution of morbidity and mortality due to influenza between the two countries and across the different years. Non parametric analysis of variance was used to compare these ratios between epidemic and pandemic influenza.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age distribution of morbidity was similar between the 2009 pandemic and seasonal epidemics due to H1N1 (p = 0.72) and H3N2 viruses (p = 0.68). In contrast, the proportion of under-60s among influenza deaths was markedly higher during the 2009 pandemic (peak <20 years) than during the seasonal epidemics (respectively p = 0.007 and p = 0.0008).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Young age was a principal mortality risk factor due to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.</p

Impact of translation on biomedical information extraction from real-life clinical notes

The objective of our study is to determine whether using English tools to extract and normalize French medical concepts on translations provides comparable performance to French models trained on a set of annotated French clinical notes. We compare two methods: a method involving French language models and a method involving English language models. For the native French method, the Named Entity Recognition (NER) and normalization steps are performed separately. For the translated English method, after the first translation step, we compare a two-step method and a terminology-oriented method that performs extraction and normalization at the same time. We used French, English and bilingual annotated datasets to evaluate all steps (NER, normalization and translation) of our algorithms. Concerning the results, the native French method performs better than the translated English one with a global f1 score of 0.51 [0.47;0.55] against 0.39 [0.34;0.44] and 0.38 [0.36;0.40] for the two English methods tested. In conclusion, despite the recent improvement of the translation models, there is a significant performance difference between the two approaches in favor of the native French method which is more efficient on French medical texts, even with few annotated documents.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures, 5 table

Cost Effectiveness of Fibrosis Assessment Prior to Treatment for Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

Chronic hepatitis C (HCV) is a liver disease affecting over 3 million Americans. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing liver fibrosis and is used as a benchmark for initiating treatment, though it is expensive and carries risks of complications. FibroTest is a non-invasive biomarker assay for fibrosis, proposed as a screening alternative to biopsy.We assessed the cost-effectiveness of FibroTest and liver biopsy used alone or sequentially for six strategies followed by treatment of eligible U.S. patients: FibroTest only; FibroTest with liver biopsy for ambiguous results; FibroTest followed by biopsy to rule in; or to rule out significant fibrosis; biopsy only (recommended practice); and treatment without screening. We developed a Markov model of chronic HCV that tracks fibrosis progression. Outcomes were expressed as expected lifetime costs (2009 USD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).Treatment of chronic HCV without fibrosis screening is preferred for both men and women. For genotype 1 patients treated with pegylated interferon and ribavirin, the ICERs are $5,400/QALY (men) and$6,300/QALY (women) compared to FibroTest only; the ICERs increase to $27,200/QALY (men) and$30,000/QALY (women) with the addition of telaprevir. For genotypes 2 and 3, treatment is more effective and less costly than all alternatives. In clinical settings where testing is required prior to treatment, FibroTest only is more effective and less costly than liver biopsy. These results are robust to multi-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.Early treatment of chronic HCV is superior to the other fibrosis screening strategies. In clinical settings where testing is required, FibroTest screening is a cost-effective alternative to liver biopsy

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: Comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic

Background The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. Methods We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. Results The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. Conclusions The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates

Impact on Life Expectancy of Withdrawing Thiopurines in Patients with Crohn’s Disease in Sustained Clinical Remission: A Lifetime Risk-Benefit Analysis

Berenice Study GroupInternational audienceObjectiveLong-term treatment with thiopurines is associated with a decreased risk of Crohn’s disease (CD) flare but an increased risk of various cancers depending on gender, age, and presence of extensive colitis. We evaluated risks and benefits of withdrawing thiopurines in patients with CD in prolonged remission.MethodsWe developed a Markov model assessing risks and benefits of withdrawing thiopurines compared to continuing thiopurines in a lifetime horizon. The model was stratified by age (35 and 65 years old at thiopurine withdrawal), gender and presence of extensive colitis. Parameter estimates were taken from French cohorts and hospital databases, cancer and death national registries and published literature. Life expectancy, rates of relapse, serious adverse events, and causes-of-death were evaluated.ResultsIn patients without extensive colitis, continuing thiopurines increased life expectancy up to 0.03 years for 35 year-old men and women but decreased life expectancy down to 0.07 years for 65 year-old men and women. Withdrawal strategy became the preferred strategy at 40.6 years for men, and 45.7 years for women without extensive colitis. In patients with extensive colitis, continuation strategy was the preferred strategy regardless of age. Risk-benefit analysis was not modified by duration of CD activity.ConclusionsFactors determining life expectancy associated with withdrawal or continuation of thiopurines in patients with CD and in sustained clinical remission vary substantially according to gender, age and presence of extensive colitis. Individual decisions to continue or withdraw thiopurines in patients with CD in sustained remission should take into account these parameters

The cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for people aged 50 to 64 years: An international model

Objectives: Routine influenza vaccination is currently recommended in several countries for people aged more than 60 or 65 years or with high risk of complications. A lower age threshold of 50 years has been recommended in the United States since 1999. To help policymakers consider whether such a policy should be adopted more widely, we conducted an economic evaluation of lowering the age limit for routine influenza vaccination to 50 years in Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy.Methods: the probabilistic model was designed to compare in a single season the costs and clinical outcomes associated with two alternative vaccination policies for persons aged 50 to 64 years: reimbursement only for people at high risk of complications (current policy), and reimbursement for all individuals in this age group (proposed policy). Two perspectives were considered: third-party payer (TPP) and societal. Model inputs were obtained primarily from the published literature and validated through expert opinion. the historical distribution of annual influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence was used to simulate the uncertain incidence in any given season. We estimated gains in unadjusted and quality-adjusted life expectancy, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.Results: Comparing the proposed to the current policy, the estimated mean costs per QALY gained were R$4,100, 13,200, 31,400 and 15,700 for Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy, respectively, from a TPP perspective. From the societal perspective, the age-based policy is predicted to yield net cost savings in Germany and Italy, whereas the cost per QALY decreased to R$2800 for Brazil and 8000 for France. the results were particularly sensitive to the ILI incidence rate, vaccine uptake, influenza fatality rate, and the costs of administering vaccination. Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold ratio of 50,000 per QALY gained, the probabilities of the new policy being cost-effective were 94% and 95% for France, 72% and near 100% for Germany, and 89% and 99% for Italy, from the TPP and societal perspectives, respectively.Conclusions: Extending routine influenza vaccination to people more than 50 years of age is likely to be cost-effective in all four countries studied.I3 Innovus, Uxbridge UB8 1QG, Middx, EnglandUniv Jena, Inst Virol & Antiviral Therapy, Jena, GermanyINSERM, U444, Paris, FranceUniv Genoa, Dept Hlth Sci, Genoa, ItalyUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Reg Influenza Surveillance Grp, São Paulo, BrazilUniv York, Ctr Hlth Econ, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, EnglandI3 Innovus, Medford, MA USAHarvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USAUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Reg Influenza Surveillance Grp, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Predicting Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality from Morbidity Data

BACKGROUND: Few European countries conduct reactive surveillance of influenza mortality, whereas most monitor morbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a simple model based on Poisson seasonal regression to predict excess cases of pneumonia and influenza mortality during influenza epidemics, based on influenza morbidity data and the dominant types/subtypes of circulating viruses. Epidemics were classified in three levels of mortality burden (“high”, “moderate” and “low”). The model was fitted on 14 influenza seasons and was validated on six subsequent influenza seasons. Five out of the six seasons in the validation set were correctly classified. The average absolute difference between observed and predicted mortality was 2.8 per 100,000 (18% of the average excess mortality) and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was 0.89 (P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method described here can be used to estimate the influenza mortality burden in countries where specific pneumonia and influenza mortality surveillance data are not available

Surgical Mask to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Households: A Cluster Randomized Trial

Facemasks and respirators have been stockpiled during pandemic preparedness. However, data on their effectiveness for limiting transmission are scarce. We evaluated the effectiveness of facemask use by index cases for limiting influenza transmission by large droplets produced during coughing in households.A cluster randomized intervention trial was conducted in France during the 2008-2009 influenza season. Households were recruited during a medical visit of a household member with a positive rapid influenza A test and symptoms lasting less than 48 hours. Households were randomized either to the mask or control group for 7 days. In the intervention arm, the index case had to wear a surgical mask from the medical visit and for a period of 5 days. The trial was initially intended to include 372 households but was prematurely interrupted after the inclusion of 105 households (306 contacts) following the advice of an independent steering committee. We used generalized estimating equations to test the association between the intervention and the proportion of household contacts who developed an influenza-like illness during the 7 days following the inclusion. Influenza-like illness was reported in 24/148 (16.2%) of the contacts in the intervention arm and in 25/158 (15.8%) of the contacts in the control arm and the difference between arms was 0.40% (95%CI: -10% to 11%, P = 1.00). We observed a good adherence to the intervention. In various sensitivity analyses, we did not identify any trend in the results suggesting effectiveness of facemasks.This study should be interpreted with caution since the lack of statistical power prevents us to draw formal conclusion regarding effectiveness of facemasks in the context of a seasonal epidemic.clinicaltrials.gov NCT00774774